Gazdasági naptár

FF Notes

This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;

Why Traders Care

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;

FF Notes

This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release. Source changed series from a base year of 2000 to a base year of 2005 as of May 2011;

Why Traders Care

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

FF Notes

The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes. The vote is reported in an ‘X-X-X’ format – the first number is how many voted to increase rates, the second number is how many voted for a rate reduction, and the third is how many voted to hold rates;

Why Traders Care

It’s a detailed record of the BOE MPC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates, and offering clues on the outcome of future votes;

FF Notes

Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules;

FF Notes

This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment – for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month. Source first released in Dec 2003;

FF Notes

It’s the first indication of the employment situation, released a month earlier than the Unemployment Rate;

Why Traders Care

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;

FF Notes

This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;

Why Traders Care

It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;

Why Traders Care

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity;

Derived Via

Survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany;

FF Notes

This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;

Why Traders Care

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;

FF Notes

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts – first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the ECB website with a slight delay from real-time;

Why Traders Care

It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy;

FF Notes

The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference held 45 minutes later;

Why Traders Care

Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;

Derived Via

The 6 members of the ECB Executive Board and the 17 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. The split of votes is not publicly revealed;

FF Notes

When there is a change in rates the MPC will also issue a statement. The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the MPC Rate Statement which is focused on the future;

Why Traders Care

Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;

Derived Via

MPC members vote on where to set the rate. The individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes;

FF Notes

The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed’s website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility;

Why Traders Care

As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Why Traders Care

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;